UKR Dispatch: November '24 I
A new Administration in America
US Election
The impact of the new Trump administration on the war in Ukraine remains to be seen, but it ranks as one of the top foreign policy issues facing the incoming administration. Trump historically favors isolationist and transactional stances on foreign policy issues, especially surrounding defense and trade.
Trump's peace plan may include deploying troops to buffer zone in Ukraine, including British and European, but not American troops over the current front line in Eastern Ukraine, according to several Trump staffers. Additionally, the US would continue to provide deterrence capabilities to the Ukrainians, but Ukraine would be unable to join NATO for 20 years.
The new administration’s foreign policy plan for Europe reflects the isolationist and transactional stance. “The administration’s agenda will mark a massive shift in U.S. post–Cold War policy toward Europe. Instead of seeking to preserve and maintain the United States’ preeminent role in Europe, a Trump administration is likely to pull back and largely leave Europe to Europeans.”
A second order effect for an isolationist administration will be how countries bordering Russia respond to a pull back of money and forces. Baltic states have already been increasing their defense spending in response to Russian hybrid warfare and they may feel the need to increase this further depending on how U.S. foreign policy evolves.
Security
Russia’s territorial conquest has increased over the last few months, with Russia gaining more territory in October than any month since July 2022.
This [image from Futura Doctrina] demonstrates that the Russian eastern offensive which kicked off at the beginning of this year has actually accelerated in its seizure of Ukrainian territory as it progressed. While there will be a culminating point of this offensive at some point, this will occur later than many of us thought. It will continue through the U.S. presidential election period because this offensive is as much about the strategic story of the war, and the narrative of ‘inevitable Russian victory’ as it is about seizing ground and degrading Ukrainian ground forces and national will.
This acceleration of territorial seizure precedes the deployment of North Korean troops. “The United States has received information that indicates that "right now" there are 8,000 North Korean troops in Russia's Kursk region”
According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian forces have already engaged in combat with North Korean troops near the Russian border in early November.brewc
The Ukrainian Army is being described as “overstretched” in their efforts to contain the Russian advances. “Ukraine’s new mobilization law — finally passed in April this year — lowered the draft age to 25, expanded data collection for all eligible men, but did not offer an end point for military service after a clause setting the term for demobilization at 36 months was removed at the last minute.”
“Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Summer 2024 reportedly significantly impacted Ukrainian electrical generation capacity compared to March 2024, though it is unclear whether Russia had been able to inflict significant further damage on the Ukrainian energy grid since.”
Russia’s use of unidentified gas surges on the front line, Ukraine lacks detectors
Economics & Trade
As Ukrainian businesses shift westward under the umbrella of war, some argue that the geographical realignment may be permanent. Viktor Mykyta, regional governor in Zakarpattia which borders Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, described a rush of new businesses ranging from salt production to furniture and textiles. However, there remains a shortage of skilled labor that inhibits substantive economic growth.
Ukraine's sovereign dollar bonds and GDP warrants extended a post-U.S. election rally on Thursday on optimism that Donald Trump's return to the White House could end the country's war with Russia.
Government
European Commission for Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Peter Stano, pledged that, despite Donald Trump’s threat to stop aid to Ukraine, the EU will continue to support the country militarily and financially and will only consider a peace agreement with Russia that contains terms favorable for Ukraine. According to Stano, speculation that Europe will stand alone in supporting Kyiv is “premature.”
“Poland has proposed that Ukraine buy weapons from it on credit and then pay the costs back after the war, foreign minister Radosław Sikorski has revealed. His remarks came shortly after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appeared to criticise Poland for not providing Kyiv enough military support.”
Moldova reelects pro-Western president despite alleged Russian interference. Pro-Western President Maia Sandu won a second term in office despite alleged “massive interference” from Russia. Sandu won 55% of the vote in a runoff with her opponent, who favored closer ties to Russia, and promised to govern for all Moldovans.
Germany to provide $217 million in humanitarian winter aid for Ukraine. During a visit to Kyiv on Nov. 4, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced that the country will provide 200 million euros ($217 million) in humanitarian winter aid, as Ukraine prepares for more Russian attacks against energy infrastructure. Baerbock said that the aid funding would be used to support those affected by severe energy disruptions so "Ukrainians can be provided with essentials such as blankets or warm winter coats to protect them from freezing temperatures."