UKR Dispatch: October '24
Forward Horizon Group continues its activities inside and outside of Ukraine in the emerging technology and security sectors. This week, FHG sent a delegation to Kyiv to attend the Brave1 International Investment Summit, while our CEO, Jesse Nuese, presented research at the Irregular Warfare Center’s Annual Colloquium.
Security
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the United States this past week, meeting with multiple politicians on both sides of the aisle, including President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Territorial control changed hands little over the last two weeks, with Russia’s counter-offensive still ongoing.
Government sources assert that Iran is brokering secret talks between Russia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels to transfer anti-ship missiles to the militant group, which would enhance the Houthis ability to disrupt global trade in the Red Sea. This points to deepening collaboration between nations with an antipathy to the West.
“U.S. President Joe Biden announced nearly $8 billion in additional military aid for Kyiv.” This package includes “long-range strike weapons, air defenses, and additional F-16 training for pilots.”
A journalist looked inside Ukraine’s Drone Command Center with former U.S. General David Petraeus.
The drone revolution is ever-expanding. The skies and seas are battlegrounds where Ukrainian innovation leads the charge.
In less than half a year, what started as a grassroots effort has grown into an organized and effective drone brigade. They have proven that Ukraine isn’t just a battleground; it’s a testing ground for the future of unmanned warfare. As General Petraeus remarks: “What’s going on here is something that isn’t happening anywhere else in the world.”
Economics & Trade
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen “announced a €35bn EU loan for Ukraine as part of a G7 plan to raise $50bn on the back of future profits from frozen Russian state assets.”
John Nagl and Dan Rice argue that “by expanding the mandate of the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to include defense-related projects, the U.S. can incentivize private capital to flow into areas crucial for global security.”
The Ministry of the Economy of Ukraine asserts that Ukrainian GDP rose by 3.5% YoY between August 2023 and August 2024, highlighting the resilience of the Ukrainian economy.
Lisa Yasko argues that war risk insurance “bridges the gap” between the conflict and reconstruction by protecting assets and encouraging foreign direct investment.
International agencies, such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), have made significant strides. DFC, for example, recently announced $357 million in new political risk insurance to protect critical investments necessary for our recovery. MIGA offers coverage for foreign investors starting at $5 million, with terms lasting up to 20 years.
Government
Ukraine restricts the use of Telegram by military and government agencies after Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, provided substantiated evidence that Russian special services have access to Telegram users' personal correspondence, even deleted messages, and their personal data.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss “pathways to peace.” India seems to be coming into pole position as Kyiv’s favored interlocutor to help mediate Ukraine-Russia negotiations over the end of the conflict.
While New Delhi has consistently refrained from condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it has spoken in support of respecting sovereignty and territorial integrity, and ending the war. Six weeks after his Moscow trip raised Ukrainian hackles, Modi traveled to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy. He vowed to be “a friend” to Kyiv and help bring about a peace deal.
Vladimir Putin signed a decree authorizing the conscription of roughly 130,000 young Russian men into the military throughout the fall season.
