UKR Dispatch: October '24 II
Security
Ukraine and Russia traded drone strikes this past week, and both claimed to have recaptured small villages along various parts of the front. The Institute for the Study of War’s recent key takeaways of the security situation:
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the People's Republic of China (PRC) for an official visit on October 14, highlighting continued Russia-PRC defense cooperation against the backdrop of bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean.
Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recaptured positions in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in central Toretsk.
“The West must learn defense tech lessons on the Ukrainian battlefield”-According to US military experts, the window between the first deployment of an improved drone design and the appearance of countermeasures is usually just over a month. Responses can range from electronic interference to copying drone designs and combat tactics. It is a lethal game of whack-a-drone that has led to the testing of, among other technologies, autonomous target acquisition and increasingly autonomous drone operations.
Ukrainian companies are leading the way in emerging technology as “Innovation and improvisation are fueling Ukraine’s emergence as a defense tech hub.”
Ukrainian Electronic Warfare Operator While innovation in the defense space has helped Ukraine keep a tactical and strategic edge, it has not been without “risks for democracy and human rights.”
A lack of consistent support risks putting Ukraine in a poor bargaining position, should the time come—a position that would have negative ramifications for everyone in the West.
Economics & Trade
‘We believe that in 5 years, Ukraine's defense sector will attract half a billion dollars;’ Q&A with foreign defense investors - Ukraine has the capacity to produce around $20 billion worth of weapons and equipment, according to government estimates, but the state budget can only fund around $6 billion. Western investors and technology firms are positioning themselves to integrate Ukraine’s nascent defense innovation and industrial base into Allied supply chains.
This dynamic is further reinforced by a recent proclamation by the Ukrainian Army Head of Export Control that he aims for a more “friendly relationship with defense tech; a more simplified and transparent permit process; and a “balanced” system of export control.”
“Modern warfare is not only a conflict of people but also a conflict of technologies. Today, Ukraine is truly setting the trend in the development of defense technologies. We are ready to share our expertise and experience with foreign partners while also requiring support in terms of technologies, resources, and knowledge. We know that technology will allow us to save the lives of our soldiers and protect democracy worldwide.”
Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Andriy Lebedenko, at the recent Brave1 Defense Tech Valley conference in Kyiv
French companies are the biggest foreign employers in wartime Ukraine, with 180 firms employing around 25,000 people. The French presence is particularly notable in sectors such as retail, banking, and technology, with companies including UKRSIBBANK, Credit Agricole, Auchan, Ubisoft, and BlaBlaCar leading the way. Despite the full-scale invasion launched by Russia in 2022 and the current wartime conditions in Ukraine, no French company has left the country or ceased operations.
American University Kyiv offers students unique US internship program experience
Poland’s exports of goods and services reached $469 billion last year, surpassing the $466.6 billion [of exports] in sanctions-hit Russia.
Government
“Poland will temporarily bar refugees from claiming asylum in the country after crossing the border from neighboring Belarus, amid warnings that Russia and its allies are using migrants to try to destabilize the EU.”
U.S. House Speaker has “no appetite” for funding for Ukraine, hoping a call from former President Trump, if elected, would solve the problem.
The United Kingdom announced new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers which Moscow uses to export oil, bypassing a Western embargo imposed after its invasion of Ukraine. Experts say the so-called ghost fleet of tankers with opaque ownership or without proper insurance has allowed the Kremlin to keep exporting despite the embargo on exports and oil price cap on its global sales.