Dispatch: Taiwan - February 18–24, 2026

Dispatch: Taiwan | Forward Horizon Group | February 2026

Strategic Assessment

Three developments define this dispatch window. Taiwan’s new legislative session opened February 24 with the NT$1.25 trillion (~USD $39.5B) special defense budget as the stated top priority — but KMT internal cap discussions ranging from NT$350B–$750B (~USD $11.1–23.7B) and a hard March 15 LOA expiration deadline on existing FMS cases mean the negotiation window is shorter and the stakes are higher than the headlines suggest. Concurrent with that fight, President Trump confirmed on February 18 that he is discussing Taiwan arms sales with Xi Jinping — a signal that new FMS notifications may be on hold and that the bilateral arms pipeline faces near-term political headwinds independent of Taipei’s domestic political stalemate. For defense technology companies, the procurement signals are hardening while the delivery infrastructure is softening.